Is it a long-term slide?

I’ve had some interesting comments privately from people about the significant decline on active Australian Second Life users over the past two months.

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So, I’ve created a topic on the SLOz forums to delve a bit deeper – why the slump? Wold love to hear your thoughts.

Aussie population update – the decline continues

Linden Lab have released the metrics for September 2007 and there’s been a further significant decline in the number of Australians actively using Second Life.

The active Australian population is now cited as 11,975, down from the 13,567 reported last month and the 14.832 the month before that. Australia has stayed in 11th place overall for countries using Second Life.

That’s a really significant drop in Australians using SL actively. We seem to be heading back to below ten thousand if the trend continues.

Aussie population update – active users decline for first time

Linden Lab have released the metrics for August 2007 and for the first time since we started monitoring Australians in Second Life, there’s been a decline.

The active Australian population is cited as 13,567, down from the 14,832 reported last month. Australia has stayed in 11th place overall for countries using Second Life. According to New World Notes, Australia comes in fourth as far as active residents in proportion to country population.

Has SL reached its saturation point in SL? I’d think not, although until there’s a new reason for Australians to hear about SL such as a new corporate presence or other major event, I can’t see any great increase in numbers occurring.

2.5 million SL users by 2010? Maybe.

Veteran aussie SL developer Gary Hayes (Gary Hazlitt) has postulated that there may be as many as 2.5 million simultaneous SL users by mid-2010. Guessing at numbers that far into the future is always going to be crystal-ball gazing but instinctively 2.5 million doesn’t seem out of the bounds of possibility – particulary with improvements in scaleability that should occur in coming months and years.

Such numbers would equate to around a couple of hundred thousand aussies in SL – that’s quite a critical mass.

One note: the 80 000 concurrency experienced last weekend was probably a glitch.

Aussie population update – 15K and rising

Linden Lab have released the metrics for July 2007 and the rate of growth is slow but steady.

The active Australian population is cited as 14,832, up from the 12,910 reported last month. Australia is back to 11th place overall.

One of the interesting new metrics released was number of SL sessions that ended abnormally i.e. crashes. Since January 2007, around a quarter of sessions ended in a crash. That’s an astounding level – imagine any established software vendor trying to sell a product that only works correctly three out of four times. That said, it illustrates just how committed Linden Lab are to transaparency that they even publish figures showing their key weaknesses.

The SLOz Traffic Index – July 2007

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We’re back with an expanded STI. The overall feedback has been positive, particularly once we’ve explained the general purpose of the STI. Our favourite quote in reaction to last month’s initial effort was that using traffic to measure popularity was like using turds to measure digestion (thanks Metaversed).

Which leads perfectly to a reminder on methodology as well as a couple of disclaimers:

1. The number linked to each presence is a standard average based on dwell statistics provided to all SL users via the Search Places option.
2. For large presences we’ve chosen the most popular area rather than add up total dwell – this means larger presences may have overall larger numbers but that’s not what we’re measuring (see also point 5). Example: The Pond and ABC Island have many different areas – we track the traffic on the most popular area for both those presences.
3. Each presence, unless an addition since the start of the reporting period, has had their traffic stats measured at least ten times with each instance at least 24 hours apart.
4. The individual times and statistics can be found here
5. The STI is indicative only – yes we know there are much more detailed methodologies and that ours is a rough guide only for the SL community – we think of it as a ‘what’s hot’ measure. Discussion / criticism on the STI here.

The July results:

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There are a couple of additions to the index, with PIER one of the more popular new ones. The Enchanted Realm traffic is based on one sample only so it’s too early to tell if it’ll maintain its current position. The Billabong Bar and ABC Sandbox retain their appeal and Armory Island’s wall-to-wall gun-toting keeps it in prime position.

If you have a presence in SL that you’d like added to the index, let us know. It just has to be owned / operated by Australians for inclusion. We look forward to any feedback.

Is it just ‘Summer’ Doldrums?

Since the release of the June metrics, there’s been a general consensus that a peak has been reached. The only conjecture is when growth is likely to increase again. Or if it will at all. The northern hemisphere commentators are calling it summer doldrums but not ruling out a deeper change.

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Australian users are contradicting the trend, with a jump from 1.93% to 2.61% in active Australian users. That’s arguably because the Australiam media’s interest in Second Life is recent when compared to the USA and Europe. As media stories increase their focus on user growth, some will argue the media are spooking potential new users. That may be a risk, however any product lives or dies on its usability and Second Life is no different. Imminent enhancements like voice will determine in a large way that perception of improving usability.

Aussie population update – a dozen thousand

Meta Linden has once again given an update on SL metrics.

Linden state there’s now 12,910 active aussie users, meaning that Australia has moved from 11th to 10th place in the world with 2.61% of the active SL population.

As we stated last month, the definition of active is fairly generous but growth does indeed continue. The rate of growth has slowed in recent months however it’ll be interesting to see the impact of the 60 Minutes / Australian Women’s Weekly coverage on registrations.

The inaugural SLOz Traffic Index – June 2007

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As mentioned previously, we will be providing a monthly snapshot of popular aussie locations in Second Life. We’re pleased to provide the initial SLOz Traffic Index (STI) for June. Being the first one it’s a fairly modest list. A few important notes on methodology as well as a couple of disclaimers:

1. The number linked to each presence is a standard average based on dwell statistics provided to all SL users via the Search Places option.
2. For large presences we’ve chosen the most popular area rather than add up total dwell – this means larger presences may have overall larger numbers but that’s not what we’re measuring (see also point 5).
3. Each presence, unless an addition since the start of the reporting period, has had their traffic stats measured at least ten times with each instance at least 24 hours apart.
4. The individual times and statistics can be found here
5. The STI is indicative only – yes we know there are much more detailed methodologies and that ours is a rough guide only for the SL community – we think of it as a ‘what’s hot’ measure. Discussion / criticism on the STI here.

Onto the STI:

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Telstra’s Billabong Bar and the ABC Island Sandbox are no surprises as popular haunts. Armory Island by its very nature has a wide international popularity hence its number one position. The Australia Sim is garnering a lot of traffic for a new build and Lord Coalcliff’s Skyhome Resort is a stayer. Another relatively new presence is Sofia’s furniture and its popularity isn’t to be sneezed at either.

If you have a presence in SL that you’d like added to the index, let us know. It just has to be owned / operated by Australians for inclusion. We look forward to any feedback and watch out next month for a more comprehensive index.

Aussie population update – stable at 10K

Meta Linden has again given an update on SL metrics. This month there’s been a number of changes including the addition of a “Countries By Active” category which takes a little more of the guesswork out of estimating the Australian SL community.

Because the measures have changed since last monthit’s difficult to provide a trend. Australia has maintained it’s ranking at 11th in the world but the percentage of the overall population has ‘dropped’ to 1.93% under the new measure. This translates to 9779 active users – active is defined as being logged in for more than one hour during the reporting period. This is a fairly generous definition of active – the numbers of users logged in more than once per week would obviously be much lower again.

Major credit to Linden Lab for their transparency on the figures and it certainly quashes some of the wild claims we’ve heard over the past couple of months about there being closer to 20 thousand active aussies in SL. Last month we claimed an active Australian population coming up on ten thousand and that’s been born out by the Linden figures. The rapid growth has continued to slow and we don’t believe there’ll be any significant change in the coming month, just slow but steady growth.

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